Business and Financial Forecasting:
Undertake statistical analysis and discuss a number of statistical issues. It is important that you demonstrate your understanding as fully as possible by ensuring, inter alia, (i) your discussion is precise, (ii) all relevant elements of Excel and EViews output are included and discussed fully, and (iii) you make explicit what analysis you are undertaking at each stage, how it is applied, what it involves, and how the results from it are evaluated and interpreted.
This question requires consideration of theUnemployment.xlsxdata Öle available from the Blackboard pages for MN-3003. This Öle contains monthly observations on a measure of un-employment for the USA over the period January 2004 to September 2014. The data arenot seasonally adjusted (i.e. they are NSA).
Provide a detailed account of classical time series decomposition. Illustrate your answer by applying multiplicative time series decomposition to these data using a212MA smoother as appropriate. Aspartof your answer, provide a graph containing the original unemployment data and the seasonally adjusted version of it that you derive.