1.A payoff table is given below and the probabilities of s1, s2, and s3 are .2, .5, and .3, respectively, then what is the most you pay for a highly reliable forecast?
- s1 s2 s3
- d1 250 750 500
- d2 300 -250 1200
- d3 500 500 600
2.Expected value is the sum of the weighted payoff possibilities at a circular node in a decision tree.
3.A payoff table is given as; what choice should be made by the conservative decision maker?
- s1 s2 s3
- d1 250 750 500
- d2 300 -250 1200
- d3 500 500 600
4.For the payoff table below, the decision maker will use P(s1) = .15, P(s2) = .5, and P(s3) = .35.
What is the expected value for the best decision?
- State of Nature
- Decision s1 s2 s3
- d1 -5,000 1,000 10,000
- d2 -15,000 -2,000 40,000
5.If the probability of s1 is .40 what is the value at node 11.
6.Given the following table of payoffs use sensitivity analysis to determine at what probability or less you would select decision A?
Decision Event1 Event 2
A 0 20
B 6 16
C 8 0
7.Given the following table of payoffs use sensitivity analysis to determine at what probability or more you would select decision C?
Decision Event1 Event 2
A 0 20
B 6 16
C 8 0
8.If the probability of s1 = .6 and the probability of F = .40 what is the value at node 4.
9.The following is a payoff table giving profits for various situations.
What decision would an optimist make?
10.The following is a payoff table.
What decision should be made based on the minimax regret criterion?