The number of cans of soft drinks sold in the machine each week is recorded below. Construct forecasts starting in period 3 using a two period moving average.
|
Period
|
Sales
|
Moving Average
|
Absolute Error
|
Squared Error
|
|
|
1
|
338
|
----
|
----
|
----
|
|
|
2
|
219
|
----
|
----
|
----
|
|
|
3
|
278
|
|
|
|
|
|
4
|
265
|
|
|
|
|
|
5
|
314
|
|
|
|
|
|
6
|
323
|
|
|
|
|
Using the data above, develop forecast, starting in period 3 using the exponential smoothing approach. Assume alpha to be .20. Note: Ft+1=aYt+(1-a)Ft
|
Period
|
Sales
|
Exponential Smoothing
|
Absolute Error
|
Squared Error
|
|
|
1
|
338
|
----
|
----
|
----
|
|
|
2
|
219
|
338
|
----
|
----
|
|
|
3
|
278
|
|
|
|
|
|
4
|
265
|
|
|
|
|
|
5
|
314
|
|
|
|
|
|
6
|
323
|
|
|
|
|
Using the MSE as the evaluation method, which forecasting method is the most accurate, the moving average forecast or the exponential smoothing forecast? Explain.