How can statistical risk-prediction models ameliorate


THINK LIKE AN ADMINISTRATOR:

Parole decision making may be one of the most difficult decision points in the criminal justice process. Making decisions on who gets released early from prison is always controversial, especially when it is someone who has committed a serious offense. Persons put in charge of parole commissions oftentimes work at the pleasure of the governor of the state. In addition, parole commissioners receive heavy pressure from many different sources to be very conservative in making parole decisions. A significant concern is the perception of the victim or the victim's family regarding the offender and his/her possible release from prison. While confronted with these pressures, there also is a current emphasis on releasing low-risk offenders to reduce prison overcrowding and the cost of incarceration. It is within this context that parole decision making occurs.

1. Given your relationship with the governor, at what point is your parole decision making influenced by political concerns?

2. How can statistical risk-prediction models ameliorate political considerations?

3. How would you factor political influence into your statistical prediction model?

4. What role do other criminal agencies have in your decision making?

5. What weight do you give to victims and their advocates regarding a parole decision?

6. What role should the legislature have in parole decision making via the sentencing process?

7. Should parole decision making mitigate the effects of sentencing practices concerning racial, ethnic, and gender bias?

8. Should family and community conditions of the offender affect parole decision making?

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