Find out the likelihood of current demand


Solve the below problem:

Q: In the clinic renovation example, what if management thinks that the likelihood of current demand remaining is 30%, the likelihood of a moderate increase is 25%, and the likelihood of a large increase is 45%? What should they do, according to the expected total payoff?

Alternative State of the world Outcome

( future demand forecasts)

no renovation demand remains at 20 patients per day demand met

" increase to 35 " not met

" increase to 50 " not met

minor renovation remain at 20 " demand met

" increase to 35 " demand met

" increase to 50 " not met

major renovation remains at 20 " demand met

" increase to 35 " demand met

" increase to 50 " demand met

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Operation Management: Find out the likelihood of current demand
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