Emergency calls to the city of durham nc for the past 24


Emergency calls to the city of Durham NC for the past 24 weeks are shown: [8 points] Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Calls 50 35 25 40 45 35 20 30 35 20 15 40 Week 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Calls 55 35 25 55 55 40 35 0 75 50 40 65 (a) Use a 2-month moving average on all the data and plot the averages and calls. (b) Use a 3-month weighted moving average and add the 3-month plot to graph created for (a). Use weight of 4 for most recent period, and 2 for each subsequent period. (c) Compute forecasts for each month using exponential smoothing, with an initial forecast = 50. Use α = 0.3 and α = 0.7 and plot the results on the same chart. (d) Compute the forecast using TREND (Regression) model. (e) Using MAD for all models, which yields a more accurate forecast?

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