The best-choice problem (§2.3)
Your friend proposes the following wager: 20 people are requested, independently of one another, to write a number on a piece of paper (the papers should be evenly sized). They may write any number they like, no matter how high. You fold up the 20 pieces of paper and place them randomly onto a tabletop. Your friend opens the papers one by one. Each time he opens one, he must decide whether to stop with that one or go on to open another one. Your friend's task is to single out the paper displaying the highest number. Once a paper is opened, your friend cannot go back to any of the previously opened papers. He pays you one dollar if he does not identify the paper with the highest number on it, otherwise you pay him five dollars. Do you take the wager? If your answer is no, what would you say to a similar wager where 100 people were asked to write a number on a piece of paper and the stakes were one dollar from your friend for an incorrect guess against ten dollars from you if he guesses correctly?