The Monty Hall dilemma (§6.1)
A game-show climax draws nigh. A drum-roll sounds. The game show host leads you to a wall with three closed doors. Behind one of the doors is the automobile of your dreams, and behind each of the other two is a can of dog food. The three doors all have even chances of hiding the automobile. The host, a trustworthy person who knows precisely what is behind each of the three doors, explains how the game will work. First, you will choose a door without opening it, knowing that after you have done so, the host will open one of the two remaining doors to reveal a can of dog food. When this has been done, you will be given the opportunity to switch doors; you will win whatever is behind the door you choose at this stage of the game. Do you raise your chances of winning the automobile by switching doors?