Problem
Going back in time to see how the yield curve was prior to recessions and then recoveries is helpful for trying to guess how the present inverted curve may play out over the next 12 - 18 months. Economics, and by extension economies in general, have different inputs and factors affecting them at different times. What played out in the past may no longer be as valid today due to these differences. However, it is not generally wise to assume that this time "is different". The basic laws of economics have a long history of eventually asserting themselves in different ways and over different time frames. Regarding today's situation with persistently higher than desired inflation coupled with low unemployment and surging wages, it is difficult to see how the Fed will engineer a "soft landing" that brings down inflation without causing stress on the unemployment rate.