What is the probability that a speculator who sold euros, Financial Management

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What is the probability that a speculator who sold euros

The expected change in the dollars to euro exchange rate is 0.5% per month and the standard deviation of the monthly rate of change is 1.5%. If the current spot rate is $1.10 per euro and the one month forward rate is 1.12 per euro what is the probability that a speculator who sold euros using the forward contract will lose money? (Compute the probability of the future spot rate being higher than the forward rate observed now.)

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