Problem: Will you have an accident? The probability that a randomly chosen driver will be involved in an accident in the next year is about 0.2. This is based on the proportion of millions of drivers who have accidents. "Accident" includes things like crumpling a fender in your own driveway, not just highway accidents.
Requirement:
(i) What do you think is your own probability of being in an accident in the next year? This is a personal probability.
(ii) Give some reasons why your personal probability might be a more accurate prediction of your "true chance" of having an accident than the probability for a random driver.
(iii) Almost everyone says their personal probability is lower than the random driver probability. Why do you think this is true?