Turn of the month effect is the belief that most of the


Turn of the month effect is the belief that most of the (positive) returns on stocks occur at the turn of the month, which begins with the last trading day of the month and ends on the third trading day of the next month (a span of four days). To check this claim, assume that Ann invests $1000 initially. She buys the SP500 in the penultimate trading day of a month, close of business (cob). She sells in the third trading day of the next month, cob. What is her final wealth in the third trading day of October 2015 (cob), if she started investing in the last trading day of October 1999 (cob) according to the “turn of the month” strategy? Compare this to the final wealth under a “buy-and-hold” strategy, where she would invests $1000 in the SP500 in the last trading day of October 1999, do nothing afterwards, and sell eventually her shares in the third trading day of October 2015.

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Financial Management: Turn of the month effect is the belief that most of the
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