Post a response to these 2 discussions. 100 words or more each x2
1.The dynamics that have been taking place in Chechnya have to be considered a worst-case scenario. I believe that this is true for all parties involved, to include the Chechens seeking legitimate nationalization, the Russian Federation seeking to regain its territory and the International community hoping for an end to the violence.
This struggle has been raging on for centuries, Chechnya has always been associated with crime, corruption and violence, Russia has deeply imbedded biases concerning Chechens and to top it off the addition of international jihadist have only further convoluted the situation and incited violence.
Additionally, both sides of the conflict, the Chechens and the Russian Federation have committed horrible atrocities against each other. Due to these reasons, I believe that negotiations will have to stem from shear exhaustion from both sides. Negotiations, would have to come at a time that the give and take of a deal would make complete political sense for both parties (White, 2014 P. 169-172.)
If negotiations are ruled out I believe that the terrorism response of the Russian Federation should be a layered approach. The Russian Federation must inflict heavy damage on the international jihadist dynamic in Chechnya. In a parallel effort, the Russian Federation must address the real issues that have caused centuries of unrest. These issues that must be addressed are corruption, unemployment and poverty. (White, 2014 P. 174.)
I believe that the dynamics of the situation would prevent the international community from becoming involved in the situation. Russia would dispute any international involvement, because Russia sees this as an internal issue and does not honor Chechnya's bid for independence.
2.The person responsible for this attack on the Beslan School was Shamil Basayev, who is a jihadist. Russia tried to make some accommodations with Chechnya in March of 2003. Russia agreed to a new Chechen constitution, giving the region limited autonomy within the federation.
Russia hoped that this would help resolve the fighting (White, pg. 173). The Beslan School attack occurred after this in September of 2004. These steps taken by Russia to negotiate did not work in this instance. Basayev, likely being a jihadist first and a separatist for the Chechnya separatist cause second would be the next issue that would not allow productive negotiations.
In response to the Beslan School attack, Russians launched large anti-terrorist military actions and managed to kill Basayev in 2006. Russia was criticized for these actions, but it resulted in less suicide attacks and a dramatic slowing of separatist violence. Chechnya has some commonalities of the tribal regions along the Afghan and Pakistan border.
These areas are much the same concerning lawlessness and safe-havens for terrorist organizations. This is a threat to not only Russia but the surrounding countries if the cause is to establish a caliphate. Russia if possible should consider building relations with Moldova,Georgia, and Azerbaijan for counter-terrorism efforts and to appeal to any Chechnya separatist who are not jihadist.
The UN or a third party may be able to broker a treaty between Russia and Chechnya, but they again will likely only appeal to the Chechnya separatists and not the Islamic Extremist that are the root of the problem. Humanitarian assistance is needed but at what cost. There are numerous accounts of aid workers shot or kidnapped with a ban by the UN in 2004 on aid workers in Chechnya. Any international participation will need to be asked for by both Chechnya and Russia.
Both parties will only move forward out of what is described in an earlier post as "shear exhaustion". Russia is a country that wants to work from a position of power. Russia tried to make progress toward peace in March 2003 with the Chechen Constitution. The next steps will likely only come after a long running conflict and losses on both sides.