Schizophrenia affects about 1% of the population. Imagine that scientists discover a simple blood test that can tell with 95% accuracy whether a person will develop schizophrenia. That is, 95% of the people who test positive will develop schizophrenia (but 5% won't), and 95% of the people who test negative will not develop schizophrenia (but 5% will).
You take the test and the results come back positive. What is the approximate probability that you will develop schizophrenia?
95%
90%
50% (either you will develop it or you won't; the test results are irrelevant)
17%
10%
5%
Most psychologists agree that the two fundamental processes that are responsible for changes in our opinions and attitudes are
cognitive dissonance and persuasion.
probabilistic reasoning and persuasion.
probabilistic reasoning and testimonial evidence.
cognitive dissonance and probabilistic reasoning.