Finding value of property and probability


Assignment:

You own a plant whose value is $100,000. In case of a fire, the value of your property might be significantly reduced or even destroyed, depending on how severe the accident is. Let us represent risk by the following scenarios:

Scenario                 Value ($)                Probability

1

100,000

0.95

2

50,000

0.04

3

1

0.01

For each scenario, we have the value of your property and a probability. Clearly, in scenario 1 there is no fire and no loss. Assuming that your risk aversion is represented by a logarithmic utility function, what is the maximum insurance premium that you would be willing to pay? (Hint: The insurance would pay $0, $50,000, $99,999, respectively, in the three scenarios.)

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Basic Statistics: Finding value of property and probability
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