You are working on the project which has 12 activities. You find out that critical path comprises of only five activities. You then calculate the variances for five critical path activities and these variances are 3, 4, 2, 1, and 6 days. Desired completion date for project is 44 days and expected completion date for project is 40 days. Which of the given alternatives gives the probability that project will be completed by desired completion date?