Estimate there is less chance that project will reach goal


Harris County Public Health & Environmental Services (HCPHES) develop vaccination strategies and ongoing surveillance to eradicate vaccine preventable diseases in Houston. For this purpose, they develop programs to outreach underprivileged neighborhoods. The funding for these programs usually come from the state of Texas. Suppose that currently they have two immunization projects developed by the epidemiologists. However, due to budget constraints, at most one of these projects can be undertaken.

Project A aims at vaccinating 80,000 people at a cost of $5 million. But, this is a fairly risky project. The epidemiologists estimate that there is only 50% chance that this project will reach the goal. With the remaining 50% chance, it is possible that they can only vaccinate 15,000 people at a cost of $6 million.

Project B would pursue vaccinating 50,000 people at a cost of $8 million. This project is also somewhat risky. There is only 40% chance that this goal will be achieved. Otherwise, they believe that with this project, they are capable of vaccinating 35,000 people at a cost of $5 million.

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Basic Statistics: Estimate there is less chance that project will reach goal
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