Different measures of forecasting accuracy


1)a) Explain manufacturing cell layout with an example.

1)b) NBC Limited has to supply orient fans with 24,000 bearings per year on a steady daily basis. It is estimated that it costs Rs.1.20 as inventory holding cost per bearing per year and that the setup cost per run of bearings manufacture is Rs.324. What should be the optimal run size for bearing manufacture? Find out the minimum inventory cost. What would be the interval between two consecutive optimal runs?

2)a) What do you understand by capacity requirements plan?

2)b) As a product moves through its life cycle, what changes can be expected in

(i) the variety of designs offered,

(ii) its competitive factors, &

(iii) its profitability?

3)a) A company wants to plan production for the ensuing year so as to minimize the combined cost of production and storage. In each quarter of the year demand is anticipated to be 65, 80,135 & 75 units respectively. The product can be manufactured during regular time at a cost of Rs.16 per unit or during overtime at a cost of Rs.20 per unit. The cost of carrying inventory for one unit per quarter is Rs.2. The inventory at the beginning of the first quarter is zero and the production capacity quarter-wise is given below.

               Quarter-wise Production

Quarter                    Regular time                        Over time
1                                       80                                   10
2                                       90                                   10
3                                      95                                    20
4                                      70                                    10

What should be the production schedule?

4)a) Describe the inputs to the production planning system?

4)b) The following is the historical demand for a product.

Month        Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May  Jun.
Demand      15   11   12    12   16    17

(i) What is the forecast for July using a simple moving average for 3 months?

(ii) What is the forecast for July using single exponential smoothing, smoothing constant of 0.2? The forecast for January was 14.

5)a) What is ABC analysis? How does it assist inventory control?

5)b) A machine shop has five machines- A,B,C,D & E. Two jobs must be processed through each of these machines. The time in hours taken on each of these machines & the necessary sequence of jobs through the shop are given below.

Job 1 Sequence       A    B   C   D   E
            Time          2     4   3   6    6
Job 2 Sequence      C     A   D   E   B
            Time          4    6    3    3   6

Use graphical method to minimize the time needed to process the jobs on the given machines and calculate the total time needed to complete both jobs.

6)a) What are the different measures of forecasting accuracy? Explain.

6)b) Alfa Industries has to decide whether to set up a large plant or a small plant for its new range of refrigerators. A large plant will cost the company Rs.250 lakhs while a small plant will cost Rs.120 lakhs. An extensive market survey and a cost profit volume analysis carried out by the company reveal the following estimates for sales over the next 10 years.

High demand Probability = 0.5
Moderate demand Probability = 0.3
Low demand Probability = 0.2

(i) A large plant with high demand will yield an annual profit of Rs.100 lakhs.

(ii) A large plant with moderate demand will yield an annual profit of Rs.100 lakhs.

(iii) A large plant with low demand will lose Rs.20 lakhs annually because of production inefficiencies.

(iv) A small plant with high demand would yield Rs.25 lakhs annually, taking in to account the cost of lost sales due to inability to meet demand.

(v) A small plant with moderate demand will yield Rs.35 lakhs annually, as the loss due to lost sales will be lower.

(vi) A small plant with low demand will yield Rs.35 lakhs annually, as the plant capacity and demand will match.

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Operation Management: Different measures of forecasting accuracy
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