Consider the following time series data:
|
Month
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
|
Value
|
24
|
13
|
20
|
12
|
19
|
23
|
15
|
a. Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month 8?
b. Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month 8?
c. Which method appears to provide the better forecast?