Challenges in estimating the probability-hazard occurrences


Assessment:

1. Consider and do research on the location you are assigned to come up with a list of at least 10 hazards that could occur in that location (use a mix of natural and human-caused hazards).

2. On the Threat List tab, type those 10 hazards (one per row) in the yellow shaded area (rows/cells B7 through B29).

3. Move to the Probability tab. (Your list of hazards/threats should have auto-populated from the Threat list page.) Review the probability rating scale near the top of the Probability worksheet/page and, doing additional research as needed, estimate the probability or likelihood of each hazard from 1 to 5; enter your estimated rating (use numerals, not words) for each hazard in the yellow box next to the corresponding hazard.

4. Select the Vulnerability tab. (Again, your list of hazards should already appear.) Review the vulnerability rating scale and explanation at the top of the page/worksheet, and, doing additional research as needed, estimate vulnerability in the location to each of the hazards. Type your rating from 1 to 5 in the yellow box next to each hazard.

5. Select the Impact tab, review the Impact rating guidance and follow a similar process to enter impact ratings (1 to 5) for each hazard.

6. Move to the Risk Rating tab. If you have entered ratings for the location's 10 hazards in the designated spaces on the previous tabs, The spreadsheet should calculate an overall risk rating for each hazard. If it doesn't appear to work properly, give me a call and let's talk through what you are seeing. Save your spreadsheet with all team members' last names or initials in the filename.

7. Prepare an explanation of the risk ratings for your location and note your sources of information for your ratings in accordance with the assignment.

Question 1

Select one hazard (could be natural, accidental, or intentional) that could happen where you live or work (e.g., city, county, or facility). Create a post in your own words that describes in as much detail as possible the ways the hazard could occur (causes) and the potential consequences should it occur. This is a brainstorming exercise; references are great if you can find them. Whether you use references or not, be as realistic as possible (and do not use zombie apocalypse as your hazard).

Question 2

Hard to predict?

Discuss in your own words at least two challenges in estimating the probability or likelihood of hazard occurrences. Use at least one example. (at least 200 words)

Question 3

Hazard profile

Select a hazard (natural or human-caused) that could happen in a city or county with which you are familiar. Research the likelihood/threat, vulnerability, and consequences associated with the hazard in the location. Prepare a Hazard Profile Worksheet for the hazard in your chosen location (identify both the hazard and the location at the top of the first page and add your name). Provide reference citations in APA Style for your sources of information.

Question 4

Risk assessment worksheet

Select a city, county, or facility (e.g., a specific power plant or military base) for which to prepare a risk assessment worksheet. Using the sample risk assessment worksheet (Excel file), complete a risk assessment worksheet for at least five hazards that could occur in your selected location (must include some natural and some human-caused hazards).List the hazards in the yellow-shaded column, one per row/line, on the Hazards List tab. Do sufficient research on the hazard in the location to come up with a credible rating for each hazard in each of the tabs (Probability, Vulnerability, and Impact). The Risk Rating tab at the end of the worksheet includes formulas, so do not type anything on that tab.

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Risk Management: Challenges in estimating the probability-hazard occurrences
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