Case - Forecasting Attendance Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Stephenville, Texas, 30 miles southwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, enrolls close to 20,000 students. In a typical town–gown relationship, the school is a dominant force in the small city, with more students during fall and spring than permanent residents. A longtime football powerhouse, SWU is a member of the Big Eleven conference and is usually in the top 20 in college football rankings. To bolster its chances of reaching the elusive and long-desired number-one ranking, in 2005 SWU hired the legendary Bo Pitterno as its head coach. Although the number-one ranking remained out of reach, attendance at the five Saturday home games each year increased. Prior to Pitterno’s arrival,attendance generally averaged 25,000 to 29,000 per game. Season ticket sales bumped up by 10,000 just with the announcement of the new coach’s arrival. Stephenville and SWU were ready to move to the big time! The immediate issue facing SWU, however, was not NCAA ranking. It was capacity. The existing SWU stadium, built in 1953, has seating for 54,000 fans. The following table indicates attendance at each game for the past six years. One of Pitterno’s demands upon joining SWU had been a stadium expansion, or possibly even a new stadium. With attendance increasing, SWU administrators began to face the issuehead-on. Pitterno had wanted dormitories solely for his athletes in the stadium as an additional feature of any expansion. SWU’s president, Dr. Marty Starr, decided it was time for his vice president of development to forecast when the existing stadium would “max out.” He also sought a revenue projection,assuming an average ticket price of $20 in 2011 and a 6.5% increase each year in future prices. Discussion Questions 1. Develop a forecasting model, justify its selection over other techniques, and project attendance through 2015. 2. What revenues are to be expected in 2014 and 2015? 3. Discuss the school’s options 2008 2009 2010 Game Attendees Opponent Attendees Opponent Attendees Opponent 1 34,500 Baylor 36,500 Oklahoma 36,100 TCU 2* 39,900 Texas 40,100 Nebraska 45,600 Texas Tech 3 38,000 LSU 39,500 UCLA 43,500 Alaska 4** 26,500 Arkansas 25,300 Nevada 27,000 Arizona 5 34,500 USC 36,500 Ohio 39,500 Rice 2011 2012 2013 Game Attendees Opponent Attendees Opponent Attendees Opponent 1 41,500 Arkansas 43,000 Indiana 47,000 TCU 2* 46,900 Missouri 49,300 North Texas 50,500 Texas Tech 3 43,500 Missouri 44,500 Texas A&M 46,000 Alaska 4** 30,500 Miami 34,000 Southern 36,500 Arizona 5 41,000 Duke 48,000 Oklahoma 50,000 Rice *Homecoming games **During the fourth week of each season, Stephenville hosted a hugely popular southwestern crafts festival. This event brought tens of thousands of tourists to the town, especially on weekends, and had an obvious negative impact on game attendance.