Problem
Smoothies Unlimited is considering opening a smoothie bar in Mandeville. The first expenditure is the $25,000,000 investment required to retrofit the location. Based on the analysis, the probabilities are 0.25 that it will be extremely popular, 0.60 that it will be moderately successful and 0.15 that it will not perform well. If the smoothie bar is extremely popular, operating cash flows of $10 million at the end of years 1, 2 and 3 will be expected. In that case, the company will expand the business at the end of year 3 at a cost of $8,000,000. After the expansion, the probabilities are 0.75 that the subsequent operating cash flows at the end of year 3 will be $16,000,000 , 0.25 that they will be $10,000,000. Each of these cash flow streams would continue in years 4 to 8. If the smoothie bar is moderately successful, operating cash flows of $6 million per year at the end of years 1 through 8 are expected. If the smoothie bar is does not perform well, cash flows are expected to be $2,000,000 per year over the 8-year life of the project. If this is the case, Raw Foods will close the smoothie bar at the end of the second year. $8 million of the original investment would be recovered.
Task
1. Draw a decision tree showing the decisions, outcomes and probabilities associated with the new project.
2. Calculate the joint probability and NPV of each path of decision tree. Assume the required rate of return is 17%.
3. Calculate the expected NPV of the entire project.
4. What is the value of the abandonment option?
5. Should the firm undertake the project?