1. Using exponential smoothing, calculate the forecasts for months 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. The smoothing constant is 0.2, and the old forecast for month 1 is 245. smoothing factor (alpha) 0.2 Month Actual Demand Forecast Demand 1 260 245 2 230 3 225 4 245 5 250 6
2. Given the following average demand for each month, calculate the seasonal indices for each month. Month Average Demand Seasonal Index January 30 February 50 March 85 April 110 May 125 June 245 July 255 August 135 September 100 October 90 November 50 December 30 Total Average
3. Using the data in problem 8.12 and the seasonal indices you have calculated, calculate expected monthly demand if the annual forecast is 2000 units. Annual forecast 2000 Monthly deseasonalized forecast Month Seasonal Index Forecast January February March April May June July August September October November December
4. The Fast Track Ski Shoppe sells ski goggles during the four months of the ski season. Average demand follows: a. Calculate the deseasonalized sales and the seasonal index for each of the four months. b. If next year’s demand is forecast at 1200 pairs of goggles, what will be the fore- cast sales for each month? Next year total forecast 1200 Month Average Past Demand Seasonal Index Forecast Demand Next Year December 300 January 400 February 220 March 130 Total Deseasonalized monthly demand
5. For the following data, calculate the mean absolute deviation. Period Forecast Actual Demand Absolute Deviation 1 100 105 2 105 95 3 110 90 4 115 135 5 120 105 6 125 120 Total 675 650 MAD.