Question: An unenlightened gambler.
(a) A gambler knows that red and black are equally likely to occur on each spin of a roulette wheel. He observes five consecutive reds occur and bets heavily on black at the next spin. Asked why, he explains that black is "due by the law of averages." Explain to the gambler what is wrong with this reasoning.
(b) After listening to you explain why red and black are still equally likely after five reds on the roulette wheel, the gambler moves to a poker game. He is dealt five straight red cards. He remembers what you said and assumes that the next card dealt in the same hand is equally likely to be red or black. Is the gambler right or wrong, and why?