Question: Your new firm is introducing two products, a bicycle trailer, and a baby carriage for jogging. Your subjective probabilities of success for these products are 0.85 and 0.70, respectively. If the trailer is successful, you will be able to market the carriage to these customers; therefore, you feel that if the trailer is successful, the carriage will succeed with probability 0.80.
a. Draw a probability tree for this situation.
b. Find the probability that both products succeed.
c. Find the probability that neither product succeeds.
d. Find the probability that the trailer succeeds but the carriage does not.
e. In order for your firm to survive, at least one of the products must succeed. Find the probability that your firm will survive.