Some time ago I received the following letter:
"you may have previously received a letter notifying you that you had been a selectee in a recent sweepstake that we were conducting. According to our records, you have not claimed your gift.
We are always pleased when our bigger gifts are awarded because it's good publicity for our company. However, last year there were thousands of dollars worth of unclaimed gifts simple because the selectees respond.
This letter is to inform you that one of the following people has won a New Datsun Sentra:
Collin Andrus Oklahoma city, OK
James W. Pitman Berkeley CA
Larry Abbott Burbank, CA
In compliance with the rules of the sweepstake, you are hereby notified that you are a selectee in category I, which means you will receive one of the following:
1. R.C.A. color TV:
2. 5 FT. Grandfather Clock:
3. Datsun Nissan Sentra.
To claim your gift, all you have to do is call toll free 1-800-643-3249 for an available time and date for you and your spouse to visit heavenly valley Townhouses and attend a sales representation tour on the many advantages that interval ownership has to offer
According to small print on the back of the letter:
"the retail values and odds of receiving each gift are No. 1-1/10, 00 ($329.95), No. 2-9998/10, 000 ($249.95), No. 3-1/10, 000($5, 995.00).
Let us assume that this is an honestly conducted sweepstake, and that each of the three individuals named above had originally a 1 in 10,000 chance of winning the new Datsun. Now I known that the winner is one of these individuals, the rules of conditional probability imply that I have a one I three chance of winning the Datsun, True or false? Explain|