Case Study: Forecasting
Using the Appendix 6-1, for this assignment, you will be providing a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using the average change, confidence interval, average percent change, moving averages, and exponential smoothing forecasting methods. Use the Internet to research at least two (2) examples of the forecasting methods being used in health services organizations.
Write a two to three (2-3) page paper in which you:
1. Explain each step in the forecasting process for each method.
2. Provide a brief summary of your researched health services organizations implementing the forecasting methods.
3. Provide a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using each method of the forecasting process.
4. Conclude which forecasting method provides the best forecast, and provide a rationale for your conclusion.
Appendix 6-1 Visit Volume for Northern College Health Services
|
Month
|
Visits to Health Services
|
|
|
|
|
2005
|
Jan
|
21
|
2007
|
Jan
|
32
|
|
|
Feb
|
19
|
|
Feb
|
34
|
|
|
Mar
|
16
|
|
Mar
|
39
|
|
|
Apr
|
20
|
|
Apr
|
42
|
|
|
May
|
15
|
|
May
|
41
|
|
|
Jun
|
18
|
|
Jun
|
21
|
|
|
July
|
16
|
|
July
|
24
|
|
|
Aug
|
14
|
|
Aug
|
28
|
|
|
Sept
|
18
|
|
Sept
|
47
|
|
|
Oct
|
25
|
|
Oct
|
45
|
|
|
Nov
|
30
|
|
Nov
|
46
|
|
|
Dec
|
16
|
|
Dec
|
44
|
|
2006
|
Jan
|
22
|
2008
|
Jan
|
39
|
|
|
Feb
|
26
|
|
Feb
|
41
|
|
|
Mar
|
31
|
|
Mar
|
34
|
|
|
Apr
|
39
|
|
Apr
|
39
|
|
|
May
|
44
|
|
May
|
38
|
|
|
Jun
|
17
|
|
Jun
|
19
|
|
|
July
|
22
|
|
July
|
28
|
|
|
Aug
|
18
|
|
Aug
|
29
|
|
|
Sept
|
27
|
|
Sept
|
37
|
|
|
Oct
|
33
|
|
Oct
|
39
|
|
|
Nov
|
29
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec
|
33
|
|
|
|