The Northwoods Outdoor Company has a catalog sales operation that specializes in outdoor recreational clothing.
Demand for its items is varies through the year, peaking during Christmas season and during the spring. It has accumulated the following data for orders per season (quarter) during the past 5 years:
|
Orders (1,000s)/Year
|
|
Quarter
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
|
January-March
|
18.6
|
18.1
|
22.4
|
23.2
|
24.5
|
|
April-June
|
23.5
|
24.7
|
28.8
|
27.6
|
31.0
|
|
July-September
|
20.4
|
19.5
|
21.0
|
24.4
|
23.7
|
|
October-December
|
41.9
|
46.3
|
45.5
|
47.1
|
52.8
|
1. Develop a forecast model for these order data. Forecast demand for each quarter for year 6.
2. Develop a separate forecast model for each of the four seasons and forecast each season for year 6.
3. Which of the two approaches used in (a) and (b) appears to be more accurate? Use the proper measures of performance to justify your answer.