Below is the basic synthetic data modelling approach to Assignment, suggested by Dr Bret Slade.
1) Assignment:
a. It is synthetic so you make it up (by creating their own base data):
i. The number of purchasing steps in the cashew supply chain are: 1) Grower 2) Distributor 3) Wholesaler 4) Retailer
1. The primary producer grows 1kg cashews at a cost of AUD 0.25 sells 1kg of cashews to the distributor for AUD0.50.
a. The Distributor purchases the harvest for AUD0.50 per kilo and transports it to wholesaler warehouses at a cost of AUD0.05 per kg over an average distance of 500kms.
i. Product is stored at a cost of AUD0.01 per kg
1. Cashews are then transported again to local retailers at a cost of .05 per kg over an average distance of 500kms, using the same or competitive distributors.
a. Any international transport costs rise due to import taxes, port fees.
i. To buy nuts from an international supplier they have to be (really) cheap to make them competitive with local product.
ii. Of course, once on shore, the same vulnerabilities occur and the cost platform outlined above applies to local transport and warehousing.
b. 1kg of cashew nuts is sold from the wholesaler chain to the retailer at a cost of AUD4.00 per kilo.
c. The retailer sells 1kg of cashews to the customer at AUD12.00 per kilo.
d. What we know from the case is that the greatest vulnerabilities to the supply chain are where the nuts are transported, and where they transition to from truck to warehouse.
i. So the question then can be broken down to:
i. If the theft occurs at stage X what is the cost per kg?
ii. Who bears the cost per kg?
iii. What is the cost per kg?
e. Then under a test of logic you only need deduce how the thefts occur:
i. Insider information of schedules and security.
ii. Organised crime.
f. Then recommend how to stop it:
i. E.g. Security, and tracking, ...
g. Then provide a costing for what this will add per kg:
i. Security guard =AUD30.00 per hour x 2 guards to protect 1000 warehoused tons. Average dwell time of tons in warehouse = 48hours
ii. Vehicular Security Escort 2x vehicles x 4 guards = AUD240.00 per hour. Average transported tonnes per truck = 50 (general mass limit in Australia for a truck and trailer.
h. Base data articles below:
An overview of the Australian cashew industry
NSW Grain Harvest Management Scheme (2016-2021) Eligible Vehicle configurations and Allowable Weight Limits
i. I made up the security, warehousing and port costs from old knowledge I have from the past.
j. The point is that the data does not need to be correct, it is their model is important. Synthetic data is used to test the model