Assignment:
Q: A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, as shown below:
| Day |
Blueberry Muffins |
Cinnamon Buns |
Cupcakes |
| 1 |
42 |
17 |
58 |
| 2 |
41 |
16 |
23 |
| 3 |
42 |
18 |
28 |
| 4 |
41 |
18 |
61 |
| 5 |
49 |
20 |
35 |
| 6 |
40 |
21 |
29 |
| 7 |
43 |
25 |
28 |
| 8 |
49 |
22 |
61 |
| 9 |
39 |
26 |
27 |
| 10 |
42 |
28 |
27 |
| 11 |
47 |
29 |
23 |
| 12 |
41 |
29 |
64 |
| 13 |
47 |
30 |
26 |
| 14 |
43 |
32 |
23 |
| 15 |
45 |
34 |
21 |
a. Predict orders for the following day for each of the products using an appropriate naive method.
Blueberry Muffin : The basic naive forecast is
Cinnamon Buns : The trend-adjusted forecast is
Cupcakes
b. What should the use of sales data instead of demand imply?