What is the sensitivity of outcome to cost


Question 1: A risk assessment was conducted on two assets (A1 and A2) from three threats (T1, T2, T3) with the results as shown in the table below. By making some investments in countermeasures, the assessment team believes that they can reduce the consequences of the threat in each case by 15%. Assume the new countermeasures will have no impact on the threat likelihood of each threat.

Asset- Threat pair Consequences Vulnerability Threat Cost of New Vulnerability (V2)
(C) (S-mil  Iion) (V) without Likehhood Countermeasures with new CMs in

new CMs
(CMs) (S) Place


(T)

A1:T1 9.2 0.85 0.003 $94.96 0.82
A1:T2 14.5 0.29 0.00085 $29.48 0.25
A1:T3 5.2 0.95 0.081 5154.927 0.92
A2:T1 9.6 0.96 0.00038 $50.39 0.35
A2:T2 4.8 0.28 0.0059 $39.47 0.2
A2:T3 4 0.57 0.0028 5 50.920 0.34

a) If you completed a simple B/C analysis of this assessment, which countermeasure would you invest in first?

b) If you completed an incremental B/C analysis of this assessment, which countermeasure would you invest in first?

Question 2: You need to purchase a combination of three items, item x ($50 ea), item y ($15 ea), and item z ($100 ea). THe purchased collection of items must meet the following constraint.

5x + 5y + 5x >=2,500
5x + 10y +15z >=3,500
3x - y + 3z <= 0
x, y and z > = 0

Activity

Description

AsAlPd
61fipiK>ald

Time Estimates (days)

Most
Optvrbstc

Most Likely

Most
Pessmi st c

A

Book the auditorium

-

2

4

7

B

Print tickets

A

1

 

 

2

4

C

Make hotel and transportation arrangements

A

3

 

 

5

10

D

Negotiate with local artist union

A

1

3

8

E

Hire stage hands

0

2

4

7

F

Hire student ushers

0

1

3

5

G

Arrange Press Conference

C

2

3

4

H

Set-up stage

 

 2

3

6

I

Assign ushers to their jobs

F

1

2

3

J

Advertising and promotion

B

2

8

12

K

Hire a warm-up band

-

4

5

8

L

Sell tickets

A. K

1

5

12

a) How many of each should you purchase to minimize the total cost?

b) What is the total cost?

c) What is the sensitivity of this outcome to cost?

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