What is the probability that your patient took pill m2


Suppose that you are a doctor working at a hospital. You have a certain patient who must take 4 pills each day, one for each of four medications m1, m2, m3, m4. Each morning, exactly one of each pill is laid out for this patient. Suppose that today your patient was in a confused state, and took their pills in a totally random order. What is the probability that your patient took pill m2 before pill m3, and pill m1 after pill m4?

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