Assignments
1. How many possible outcomes are there in four flips of a fair coin? What is the probability of any particular outcome? Why would a guess of "H-T-H-T" be likely to be wrong? Why would a guess of "about half heads and half tails" be likely to be correct?
2. If each of the letters in the word "PROBABILITY" were thrown separately into a hat and one letter is drawn from the hat, what is the probability that it is a vowel? ("Y" is a vowel in this example.)
3. a) What is the probability of drawing a picture card (Jack, Queen, or King) from a full deck of 52 cards? b) What is the probability of drawing two aces in a row from a full deck (without replacement)?
4. In a party game called "Spin the Bottle," the players form a circle with a bottle at the center. A spinner spins the bottle and then kisses the person to whom it points. Although five people are playing, the bottle has pointed to Marlene on each of its three spins. What is the probability of this occurring by chance? Can you make any "guesses" about Marlene? (hint: try a tree diagram)
5. Professor Aardvark gives such difficult exams that students can only guess at the answers. a) What is the probability of getting all 5 questions on his True/False test correct by guessing (assuming that every alternative is equally likely to be correct)? b) What is the probability of getting all 5 wrong?
6. Every student in Mr. Weasel's class kept a record of the number of books read over a 3-month period. The data are: 15, 5, 8, 12, 1, 3, 1, 7, 21, 4. Compute the mean and median for these numbers. Which one seems better as a measure of central tendency?
7. If a student gets the highest grade in his class on a psychology exam, what grade would you predict that he will get on the midterm? What is the name of the principle you used to make this prediction?
8. Every roulette table has a lighted sign displaying the results of several previous spins. Why would the owners of casinos display these signs? Do people pay attention to these signs? Should they?
9. Which of the following events are independent and mutually exclusive?
Tips: "We can only use the "or rule" and the "and rule" when the events we are interested in are independent. Two events are independent when the occurrence of one of them does not influence the occurrence of the other... In addition, the "or rule" requires that the outcomes be mutually exclusive, which means that if one occurs, the other cannot occur."
• drawing cards from a deck without replacement
• flips of a coin
• rolls of a die
• drinking alcohol and wrecking a car
• motivation and college grades
1) The probability of getting "heads" three times in a row in three flips of a fair coin is ________.
2) John and Lisa have had 5 children, all girls! Given equal likelihood of a healthy pregnancy at each conception, what is the probability of having 5 female babies in a row?
3) The mistaken belief that the co-occurrence of two or more events is more likely than the occurrence of one of the events alone is called a/an _______________________________
4) In general, when someone scores extremely high or low on some measure, she or he will tend to score closer toward the mean (average) on a second measurement. This is called______________________________
5) Measures like the average (mean) or median of a group are called______________________________
6) What is the probability of getting a 4 or a 6 on one roll of a single die?
7) What is the probability of getting a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 on one roll of a single die?
8) The belief that chance processes are self-correcting is called ______________.
9) Robert is going to "33 Flavors" (with Rhonda) to get a triple-scoop of ice cream. What is the probability that Robert will order Jamocha Almond Fudge, Rocky Road, and Gold Medal Ribbon? Write in fraction.
10) Two or more events are __________ when the occurrence of one event does not affect the occurrence of the other events.
11) Two events are __________ ("or rule") when if one occurs, the other cannot occur.
13) Use the Expected value formula to find the answer for following questions. CSUSB Basketball club plans to invest $10000 to host a game. They expect to sell tickets worth $15000. But if it rains on the day of game, they won't sell any tickets and the club will lose all the money invested. If the weather forecast for the day of game is 20%possibility of rain, is this a good investment? (Hint: Use EV formula.)
14) Rubinstein and Pfeiffer (1980) have suggested that instead of reporting weather forecasts in terms of the probability of rain, a more useful index would be the Expected Value (EV) of rain. Suppose the weather forecaster knows that there is a 30% probability of 5 inches of rain and a 70% probability of no rain on a given day. What is the EV for rain? Is this number more useful than the probability of rain?
15) You joined an office "pool." There are 8 teams that you can bet on. You bet on the mighty Coyotes that have won 40% if the games played so far this season. You decided to bet $5.00 on them. If you lose, you lose your $5.00. If you win, you get back your $5.00 and get another $5.00. If you bet on the Coyotes all season and the probabilities remain the same, what is the expected value of each bet? How much should you expect to win or lose if you bet on 10 games?
16) Abby scored very low on her SAT's. Her score of 350 is well below the mean of 500. If she retakes the test, which of the following is most likely to occur and why did you pick that answer?
• She will probably score below 350.
• She will probably score close to 350.
• She will probably score between 350 and 500.
• She will probably score near 500.
• She will probably score above 800.
17) Your friend is willing to give you 5:2 odds that the Phillies will beat the Dodgers. Convert these odds to a probability value.
Format your assignment according to the give formatting requirements:
• The answer must be using Times New Roman font (size 12), double spaced, typed, with one-inch margins on all sides.
• The response also includes a cover page containing the student's name, the title of the assignment, the course title, and the date. The cover page is not included in the required page length.
• Also include a reference page. The references and Citations should follow APA format. The reference page is not included in the required page length.