What is the probability-a male will be promoted


Discuss the below:

Individually remove all four aces from a deck of playing cards. There will now be 24 red cards in the deck, that will represent "male" files, and 24 black cards that will represent "female" files. Alternatively, you may use 48 index cards, marking half with "M" and half with "F". Shuffle the cards at least seven times and then cut them.

a. Count out the first 35 cards to represent the files recommended for promotion.

(i) What was the probability that a male will be promoted?

A female?

21 males and 14 females?

(a) in the first single simulation

(b) when considering the 100 repetitions as a whole.

(ii) Do you believe that your simulation provides evidence that the bank supervisors were biased against females?

(iii) How confident are you in your statement (iv)? Discuss how your expectation may have changed as you gained more information (in the form of empirical results).

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