What is the naive forecast for october


Discuss the below:

1. Sammy Sleaze has decided to illegally copy CD's to sell in his CD store. There are several possible CD copiers that sales reps have shown him. Machine A has a fixed cost of $3000 with a variable cost of $1.35 per unit. Machine B has a fixed cost of $4500 with a variable cost of $0.95 per unit. Machine C has a fixed cost of $9,500 with a variable cost of $0.35 per unit.

a. Mathematically calculate the point (in CD's copied) at which the total costs are equal between machines A and B. You must show your work for full credit.

b. Mathematically calculate the point (in CD's copied) at which the total costs are equal between machines A and C. You must show your work for full credit.

c. Mathematically calculate the point (in CD's copied) at which the total costs are equal between machines B and C. You must show your work for full credit.

d. For each machine A, B and C, draw the total cost lines on the graph included. Label all important points. Please turn the page 90 degrees clockwise for best fit of the data on the graph. Neatness and proper scaling count.

e. Write a decision rule for selection of machines based on anticipated number of CD's copied

2. Draw a flow chart of the following process, a common one at a university: developing a new course and getting it approved.

A professor develops the course, writes a proposal, and takes it to the school of business curriculum committee, who analyze the proposal and make a decision. If it is not approved, it goes back to the professor for revision and starts through the process again. If it is approved by the curriculum committee, 16 copies are made and sent to the members of the CAPB (Curriculum and Academic Programs Board) one week before the next meeting of the CAPB. One copy is filed in the provost's office. The 16 members each read and analyze the proposal. At the meeting of the CAPB, the course proposal is discussed and a motion is made to approve. A vote is taken, and if it is not approved, it goes back to the professor to start over. If it is approved, it is sent to the registrar who adds it to the course database and to the catalog..

3. Consider the following sales data for 1999

Month   J F M A M J J Aug Sept Oct
Demand 12 14 16 17 19 23 24 18 21

a. What is the naive forecast for October?

b. What is the 4 period moving average forecast for October?

c. What is the exponential smoothing forecast for October using α= 0.25 and a January forecast of 12?

d. What is the exponential smoothing forecast for October using α= 0.15 and an January forecast of 12?

e. A linear trend has been considered. If a = 12 and b = 2.1, forecast all periods from January to October.

f. Of the forecasting methods calculated above, which one would you select as the one to use on this into the future, and why?

4. On Operations Management, 9th edition (or page 453 of the 8th edition of the text) is the Dell's Value Chain case.

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