A building project requires the use of a special brick.
Question 1) The most likely brick price is $120.00/ton but this price is volatile and fluctuates. The most optimistic price is $80.00/ton and the most pessimistic price is $180.00/ton. (Note there are 3 data points in for this estimate.)
What is the expected price of the brick?
Question 2) Also, I'm uncertain how much of the brick I'll need. I have to wait and see what the building site conditions are like and what changes the owners have in mind. I think I'll most likely need 36 tons but could require as little as 28 tons, or as much as 56 tons.
How much of the brick can I expect to use?
Question 3) Based on the estimates, what is my expected cost for the brick using the COMPLEX method?