What is a probability of blue eyes


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Q: Lets say you have tribe E and tribe T. The fraction of grey eyes in tribe E is pg_e=.673 and the probability of blue eyes is pb_e = 1-pg_e=.327. Similarly for tribe T we have the fraction of grey eyes in tribe B is pg_t=.327 and the probability of blue eyes is pb_t = 1-pg_t = .673.

Now with this a prior knowledge you find your self surrounded by 12 tribe members. You need to know if these tribe members are from tribe E or tribe T. You observe the color of their eyes and notice that the majority have grey eyes. What can you conclude about which tribe these 12 members belong to?

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