What is a confidence interval for returns
The average annual return over the period 1886-2006 for stocks that comprise the S&P 500 is 10%, and the standard deviation of returns is 20%. Based on these numbers, what is a 95% confidence interval for 2007 returns?
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Aerelon Airways, a commercial airline, suffers a major crash. As a result, passengers are considered to be less likely to choose Aerelon as their carrier, and it is expected free cash flows will fall by $20 million per year for five years.
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You find a certain stock that had returns of 4 percent, -5 percent, -15 percent, and 16 percent for four of the last five years. The average return of the stock for the 5-year period was 13 percent.
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Suppose the real risk-free rate is 3.50%. Inflation is expected to be 2% next year, 3% the following year and then 3.5% thereafter. There is a maturity premium of 0.08% per year to maturity i.e., MRP = 0.08%(t), where t is the years to maturity.
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