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What does this mean what should we do to the forecast model

A car rental company is monitoring its daily car rental contract numbers. During last month, daily car rental contracts averaged 100 contracts/day.

While monitoring the forecast values based on simple moving average method (averaging period = 5), the tracking signals are consistently coming out as large positive numbers (i.e., 13.0, 16.9, and 18.5).

What does this mean? What should we do to the forecast model to improve the situation?

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Operation Management: What does this mean what should we do to the forecast model

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