Hi Rose,
I am writing this letter as I am in need of a favor.
This is in relation to the coursework that I have to do as a part of my college course. It is about a Delphi decision exercise that I have to perform with three other participants. I want you to be one of those three and I assure you that it is going to be fun.
Following is the way that it will work.
I will give you something in particular to think about and ask you about its likelihood to occur. The likelihood of something specific happening is the number that ranges anywhere between 0% to 100%, where
• 0% = there's no way it could ever happen (like the Sun rising in the West)
• 50% = there's a fifty-fifty chance of it happening (like a coin coming up heads)
• 100% = it's absolutely certain to happen (like the Sun rising in the East)
The "something specific" is something you know about, care about, and have thought about, but don't necessarily have any expert knowledge about.
Along with your likelihood estimate, please list all the things that may push that event towards happening, or tend to keep it from happening.
I'll be collecting the same information from two other people, sharing it with you, and then asking you if you'd like to revise your estimate. This will happen twice.
Here's what I'd like you to estimate.
Question: What do you think is the proximity that America will have with a democrat as President in 2016?
Please answer with a number between 1% and 100%
Then, please list all the reasons you can think of why, or why not, that may happen.