Predicting success of trainees
What distinguishes managerial trainees who eventually become executives from those who, after expensive training, don't succeed and leave the company? We have abundant data on past trainees-data on their personalities and goals, their college preparation and performance, even their family backgrounds and their hobbies.
Statistical software makes it easy to perform dozens of signi?cance tests on these dozens of variables to see which ones best predict later success. We ?nd that future executives are signi?cantly more likely than washouts to have an urban or suburban upbringing and an undergraduate degree in a technical ?eld.
Explain clearly why using these "signi?cant" variables to select future trainees is not wise. Then suggest a follow-up study using this year's trainees as subjects that should clarify the importance of the variables identi?ed by the ?rst study.