Operation Management Assignment: Forecasting
Part 1. [Video-1] Question 1. How many of the statements are true?
(A) 0 (B) 1 (C) 2 (D) 3 (E) 4
Statement 1. The periodicity of a seasonal component in a monthly time series istwelve.
Statement 2. A stationary time series will always have a trend component.
Statement 3. An annual time series will neverhave a seasonal component
Statement 4. A seasonal component is a type of cyclical component.
Part 2. [Video-1] Questions 2-5.
Question 2. Consider the annual time series.
Using a two-point moving average, what is the forecast for time period 9?
(A) 236 (B) 224 (C) 175 (D) 218 (E) none of the above
|
Years
|
Series
|
|
1
|
150
|
|
2
|
163
|
|
3
|
183
|
|
4
|
184
|
|
5
|
200
|
|
6
|
206
|
|
7
|
209
|
|
8
|
227
|
Question 3. Consider the monthly time series.
Using exponential smoothing with a parameter of 0.84, what is the forecast for time period 9?
(A) 236 (B) 224 (C) 175 (D) 218 (E) none of the above
|
Months
|
Series
|
|
1
|
150
|
|
2
|
163
|
|
3
|
183
|
|
4
|
184
|
|
5
|
200
|
|
6
|
206
|
|
7
|
209
|
|
8
|
227
|
Question 4. Consider the weekly time series.
Using simple linear regression, what is the forecast for time period 9?
(A) 236 (B) 224 (C) 175 (D) 218 (E) none of the above
|
Weeks
|
Series
|
|
1
|
150
|
|
2
|
163
|
|
3
|
183
|
|
4
|
184
|
|
5
|
200
|
|
6
|
206
|
|
7
|
209
|
|
8
|
227
|
Question 5. Consider the quarterly time series.
Using the seasonal index approach, what is the forecast for time period 9?
(A) 236 (B) 224 (C) 175 (D) 218 (E) none of the above
|
Quarters
|
Series
|
|
1
|
150
|
|
2
|
163
|
|
3
|
183
|
|
4
|
184
|
|
5
|
200
|
|
6
|
206
|
|
7
|
209
|
|
8
|
227
|
Part 3. [Videos 1-8, 11-13] Questions6-8
An international distribution company of containers has operated a 5.8-million unit capacity warehouse in Manila to service customers between the Asian continent and the North American continent for the past four years. Liann Able, VP of logistics, sent the quarterly time series, which are the number of units in thousands serviced through the warehouse, to three of her analysts and asked them to bring forecasts to the next planning meeting for discussion.Liann convened the meeting and asked each analyst to report.
|
|
Quarter 1
|
Quarter 2
|
Quarter 3
|
Quarter 4
|
|
Year 1
|
3082
|
4958
|
1742
|
938
|
|
Year 2
|
3174
|
5106
|
1794
|
966
|
|
Year 3
|
3266
|
5254
|
1846
|
994
|
|
Year 4
|
3358
|
5402
|
1898
|
1022
|
Question 6. [Video-1, Video-2, Video-3, Video-4] Amy assumed a stationary time series with only a random component. Amy reported using a three-point moving average. What did Amy report as the forecast in thousands for the first quarter of year five?
(A) 3450 (B)3220 (C) 3542 (D)2774 (E) none of the above
Question 7. [Video-1, Video-6] Bob assumed a stationary time series with seasonal and random components. What did Bob report as the forecast in thousands for the first quarter of year five?
(A) 3450 (B) 3220 (C) 3542 (D) 2774 (E) none of the above
Question 8. [Video-1, Video-8] Carl assumed a non-stationary time series with linear trend, seasonal, and random components. What did Carl report as the forecast in thousands for the first quarter of year six?
(A) 3450 (B) 3220 (C) 3542 (D) 2774 (E) none of the above
Part 4.
Question 9. [Video-10] Assume the time series is an annual time series. For a constant forecast of 212 for all the years, what is the tracking signal with a window of three (Tk3) for the forecast of 223 for year 9?
(A) +0.75 (B) +0.25 (C) -2.00(D) -8.00 (E) none of the above
|
Years
|
Series
|
|
1
|
150
|
|
2
|
163
|
|
3
|
183
|
|
4
|
184
|
|
5
|
200
|
|
6
|
206
|
|
7
|
209
|
|
8
|
227
|
Part 5. [Select the videos most helpful]
Question 10.At the end of their fiscal year, a consulting company wants a monthly forecast for the number of contracts next year. They collected monthly data from the last five years.
|
|
Year 1
|
Year 2
|
Year 3
|
Year 4
|
Year 5
|
|
Month 1
|
315
|
393
|
471
|
549
|
627
|
|
Month 2
|
295
|
367
|
439
|
511
|
583
|
|
Month 3
|
264
|
330
|
396
|
462
|
528
|
|
Month 4
|
291
|
363
|
435
|
507
|
579
|
|
Month 5
|
265
|
331
|
397
|
463
|
529
|
|
Month 6
|
201
|
249
|
297
|
345
|
393
|
|
Month 7
|
219
|
273
|
327
|
381
|
435
|
|
Month 8
|
168
|
210
|
252
|
294
|
336
|
|
Month 9
|
98
|
122
|
146
|
170
|
194
|
|
Month 10
|
147
|
183
|
219
|
255
|
291
|
|
Month 11
|
266
|
332
|
398
|
464
|
530
|
|
Month 12
|
387
|
483
|
579
|
675
|
771
|
If you were working for my consulting company, which set of forecasts would I accept as the best monthly forecasts for next year?
|
|
Forecast (A)
|
Forecast (B)
|
Forecast (C)
|
Forecast (D)
|
(E)none of the above
|
|
Month 1
|
612
|
917
|
705
|
471
|
|
|
Month 2
|
527
|
786
|
655
|
439
|
|
|
Month 3
|
436
|
653
|
594
|
396
|
|
|
Month 4
|
522
|
781
|
651
|
435
|
|
|
Month 5
|
437
|
655
|
595
|
397
|
|
|
Month 6
|
238
|
353
|
441
|
297
|
|
|
Month 7
|
294
|
440
|
489
|
327
|
|
|
Month 8
|
176
|
265
|
378
|
252
|
|
|
Month 9
|
58
|
87
|
218
|
146
|
|
|
Month 10
|
131
|
196
|
327
|
219
|
|
|
Month 11
|
438
|
656
|
596
|
398
|
|
|
Month 12
|
926
|
1387
|
867
|
579
|
|
Format your assignment according to the following formatting requirements:
1. The answer should be typed, double spaced, using Times New Roman font (size 12), with one-inch margins on all sides.
2. The response also include a cover page containing the title of the assignment, the student's name, the course title, and the date. The cover page is not included in the required page length.
3. Also Include a reference page. The Citations and references should follow APA format. The reference page is not included in the required page length.