Problem: Your friend, Alex, is thinking about starting a new restaurant, and knowing that you are studying for an MBA, he comes to you for advice. When he tells you about his idea for his new restaurant he says, "I've estimated that there are about 10 different things that have to go well during the first year, but I think they each have a 90% chance of going well. Therefore, it's more likely than not that the restaurant will be successful." What can you conclude about Alex's reasoning?