In Year 1, the full-employment budget showed a deficit of about $100 billion and the actual budget showed a deficit of $150 billion one year. In Year 2, the full employment budget showed a deficit of about $125 billion and the actual budget showed a deficit of $150 billion. Based on these data, what can be concluded about the direction of fiscal policy?
Fiscal policy was expansionary because the full-employment budget deficit increased from one year to the next. The actual deficit is composed of the full-employment portion and the cyclical portion. The full-employment portion of the actual budget deficit rose from $100 to $150 billion. The cyclical portion is determined by taking the actual deficit and subtracting the cyclical portion from it. The cyclical portion of the actual deficit fell from $50 billion to $25 billion. The actual budget deficit did not change, but it does not provide a good indication of the direction of fiscal policy. Only the full-employment budget tells the direction of fiscal policy.