Verizon offers a protection plan for new smartphones at $195. The absolutely most expensive iPhone you can buy right now is $849. Assume for a moment you are a very cautious but forgetful person: you would never, ever drop or damage your phone, but you might lose it. How likely must you be to lose your phone for $195 to be an actuarially fair price for mobile phone insurance? [Hint: you’re solving for p, the probability of losing your phone. Not losing your phone, therefore, happens 1-p percent of the time.]