Weekly demand figures at Hot Pizza are as follows:
WeekDemand ($)
1 108
2 116
3 118
4 124
5 96
6 119
7 96
8 102
9 112
10 102
11 92
12 91
Using the Hot Pizza weekly demand figures provided, estimate demand for the next 3 weeks using a 3-week moving average as well as simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.2. Evaluate the mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean squared error (MSE), bias, and tracking signal (TS) in each case. Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why? Include all calculations as well as your narrative explanation and summary. This summary and explanation can be informal and unformatted, however, it needs to go into a two-page paper (WHICH YOU DON'T HAVE TO WRITE COMPLETELY). BUT, I do need some good, useful, substantial material for that portion. This can be a list, bullets, paragraph, whatever, just enough thought to develop my paper.