David Hassenzahl discusses the relative risks of eating peanut butter contaminated with aflatoxin and apple juice contaminated with UDMH, a degradation product of Alar. The following Table shows his input data. The table below contains the correct information.
|
Variable
|
Units
|
Average
|
5th %ile
|
95th %ile
|
Distribution
|
|
Peanut butter intake
|
g/day
|
11.38
|
2.00
|
31.86
|
Lognormal
|
|
Apple juice intake
|
g/day
|
136.84
|
16.02
|
430.02
|
Lognormal
|
|
Aflatoxin concentration
|
ug/kg
|
2.82
|
1.00
|
6.5
|
Lognormal
|
|
UDMH concentration
|
ug/kg
|
13.75
|
0.5
|
42.00
|
Lognormal
|
|
Aflatoxin potency
|
kg-day/mg
|
17.5
|
4.02
|
28.33
|
Normal
|
|
UDMH potency
|
kg-day/mg
|
0.49
|
0.00
|
0.85
|
Normal
|
Using Crystal Ball, calculate the daily cancer risk for a child who weighs 20 kg and who eats an average amount of peanut butter. Please use the average values for the required parameters.
Do the same for a 20 kg child who drinks an average amount of apple juice.
NOTE: Daily cancer risk = Intake x Concentration x Potency / Body Weight
Calculate the maximum daily cancer risks for peanut butter and apple juice based on the 95th percentiles.
Discuss your results briefly.