In theory, a golfer playing a par-4 hole tees off, hitting the ball in the fairway, then hits an approach shot onto the green. The first putt (usually long) probably won't go in, but the second putt (usually much shorter) should. Sounds simple enough, but how many strokes might it really take? Use a simulation to estimate a pretty good golfer's score based on these assumptions:
a) The tee shot hits the fairway 70% of the time.
b) A first approach shot lands on the green 80% of the time from the fairway, but only 40% of the time otherwise.
c) Subsequent approach shots land on the green 90% of the time.
d) The first putt goes in 20% of the time, and subsequent putts go in 90% of the time.