Tristian Oil estimates that a prospective field has 20 million barrels; If there is a 60% chance that there is 30million barrels and a 40% chance ?f XXXX million barrels. If the actual amount of oil is 30 barrels; Cash flows from drilling will be 16million. If the amount is only 10 Million; present value will be only $4million. It costs 6million to drill the well; that costs 100,000 is available and can verify the amount of our decision tree and NPV to determine if it is cost effective to pay for the project.