Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Sunshine Garden Supply are shown in the following table.
Year Demand for Fertilizer (1,000s of Bags)
1 4
2 6
3 4
4 5
5 10
6 8
7 7
8 9
9 12
10 14
11 15
a. Develop a three-year moving average to forecast sales in year 12.
b. Develop a 3-year weighted average to predict demand in year 12. Sales in the most recent year is given a weight of 2 and sales in the two years prior to that are each given a weight of 1.
c. Develop a regression/trend line to estimate the demand of fertilizer in year 12.
d. Based on the three forecasts you have created, which forecast is the most accurate?